The latest (not recent, sorry I'm a little bit late on that one) poll from Abacus shows the three main federal parties very close to each other. However, once we take into account the distribution of the vote, the Liberals of Justin Trudeau would be the clear favorite to win the election.
Please note that Abacus doesn't allocate the undecided anymore. They made this choice after the last BC election. While it's nice, I don't have an "undecided" category in my seat projections model. Therefore, I allocated the undecided proportionally. During the next election, I'll spend a lot of time looking and studying these undecided voters. But for now, it'll do.
The average projections would put the Liberals and Conservatives in a tie. If that was to actually happen, Stephen Harper would then remain PM, unless the NDP wold of course announce some sort of deal or support for Justin Trudeau.
In terms of probabilities, the Liberals would have around 65% chances to win the most seats. The Conservatives are only at 35%. As for the NDP, its chances are almost zero. It might seem weird that the NDP, despite being so close in the overall popular vote, would have virtually no chance of forming the next government. This happens mostly for two reasons. First of all, being third in Ontario would realy hurt this party. Secondly, the NDP currently doesn't seem to have a sure region or province. The Liberals have the Atlantic while the Conservatives have the Prairies and Alberta. For the NDP, the closest thing would be BC but it doesn't completely compensate for the other regions/provinces. But let's be clear here, if it was an election, we'd have to consider the NDP as being in the race. Simply with lower odds.
